In an increasingly tumultuous market, the Nordic region has thus far remained resilient to pressures; as the Covid-19 pandemic begins to abate, new stressors, such as the war in Ukraine and global economic downturn are starting to affect investment and deal flow across Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland. With the countries’ proximity to Russia, and Finland and Sweden in the process of joining Nato, the political and economic situation doesn’t look like settling down anytime soon.
In Norway, Thommessen’s Sverre Tyrhaug states that despite the vicissitudes of global market forces and a drop in capital markets work, 2022 ‘turned out surprisingly well, we were busy and up in terms of turnover’. With regards to sectors, as with most countries in Europe, Norway is looking to increase energy security and Thommessen has seen an increase in renewables, as well as oil and gas, and hydrogen projects. As for 2023, Tyrhaug remains optimistic: ‘Lots of clients will put cost-cutting high on the agenda, especially due to increasing inflation. However, it will not necessarily be a bad year for lawyers; we expect consolidation in the tech, energy and renewables sector and a lot of M&A and distressed M&A work.’ Norway remains a stable legal market with indigenous, independent firms taking up the bulk of high-profile work.
In Sweden, Vinge’s Maria-Pia Hope says: ‘The M&A market remained comparatively busy, if not at 2021 levels, and stock exchange volatility created opportunities – public takeover bids were a clear trend for the year.’ With regard to trends for the next year, she adds: ‘We expect the elite independent firms in the Nordics, with their full-service offering and robust client base, to continue to do well in a weaker market.’
In terms of sectors, infrastructure and energy will be a key area of focus, as it is across the Nordics and Europe; this will create investment opportunities for clients. With a weaker domestic currency, Hope suggests: ‘Swedish assets will continue to be attractive at a more general level to certain international investors.’
Denmark entered 2022 with a buoyant M&A market, particularly in the life sciences, financial services, and technology sectors, though early signs of deterioration soon became reality in September with the Ukraine conflict. In the latter half of the year, firms saw an uptick in insolvency mandates, as rising interest rates and material prices led to a steep decrease in real estate transactions. The renewable energy sector continues to remain strong within the Danish market, particularly with the development of offshore wind farms.
As firms contend with the possibility of an impending recession in 2023, practitioners worry about more than the potential impact on earnings. Christina Bruun Geertsen, managing partner of Kromann Reumert, expresses her concerns about the cultural effect of navigating employees through a potential recession, acknowledging that ‘getting used to a new normal’ may cause employees to develop stress, but ‘at least, sitting in Denmark, we will likely not be severely impacted’.
‘We expect the elite independent firms in the Nordics, with their full-service offering and robust client base, to continue to do well in a weaker market.’
Maria-Pia Hope, Vinge
The previously stable Danish legal market saw unprecedented movement in the form of lateral partner hires and team moves around Copenhagen, in addition to the growing presence of large audit firms, including KPMG. The Big Four have continued to establish legal practices within Denmark, despite thus far being unable to fully permeate the market. Geertsen confirms: ‘While they aren’t as present right now, we anticipate they are coming, they have the financial muscle’ [to compete with local firms].’
As the Ukraine war casts a shadow over Finland’s economic outlook (and consequently its 1,340km shared border with Russia), firms have seen energy transition become a huge area of investment as Finland seeks to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. Despite previously maintaining a peaceful relationship with Russia, Finland’s decision to apply for Nato membership will affect the perceived risks for global investors and the surrounding investment environment, and will continue to affect how the nation will thrive over the next three to five years.
Mikko Manner, managing partner of Roschier, notes the ‘massive amounts of money being poured into industrial projects’ across the energy sector, particularly in relation to carbon capture. Firms have also noted an increase in general corporate mandates as Nordic companies scramble to exit from Russia, with Manner confirming that ‘there’s a lot of disruption in the environment’.
Decreases in activity in the capital markets and M&A spheres, though less severe than feared by numerous practitioners, has raised concerns for the possibility of economic recession in 2023. Practitioners, including the managing partner of Krogerus in Finland, Mårten Knuts, remain cautiously optimistic, with him suggesting that the ‘relative cosiness’ of the Finnish market ‘makes the consequence of a recession very tolerable… it will hit firms fairly equally’. But with the legal services industry showing surprising resilience overall, Manner cautions that the recession could have an uneven impact: ‘The smaller the firm and the weaker its position, the harder it’s going to be.’
In the face of a turbulent year of change, Nordic firms have retained their optimistic outlook for the future, cushioned by the longstanding stability of the region’s legal market. Looking forward, firms continue to contend with several issues, including the war for talent. Geertsen acknowledges that firms compete not only with each other, but ‘other businesses and ways of working that compete with the way law firms work’ and contends that firms must in turn ‘adapt and offer the solutions and workspaces’ which employees can identify with.
While coming year promises to provide uncertainty abound, practitioners remain confident, with Knuts observing that ‘the legal services industry is surprisingly resilient’, having survived the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in tandem with ongoing geopolitical and economic anxieties. LB
| Rank (by Legal 500 ranking) | Firm name | Region | Total lawyers | Total partners | Promotions | Offices | Partner hires |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Roschier | Nordics | 296 | 48 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 53 | Hannes Snellman | Nordics | 192 | 38 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 70 | BAHR | Nordics | 183 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 73 | Kromann Reumert | Nordics | 284 | 63 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 74 | Mannheimer Swartling | Nordics | 460 | 86 | 4 | 6 | |
| 75 | Wiersholm | Nordics | 240 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 76 | Wikborg Rein | Nordics | 257 | 73 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 81 | Thommessen | Nordics | 274 | 63 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 82 | Vinge | Nordics | 283 | 72 | 3 | 5 | |
| 83 | Bech-Bruun | Nordics | 298 | 65 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 84 | Borenius | Nordics | 116 | 28 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 85 | Bruun & Hjejle | Nordics | 158 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 86 | Gorrissen Federspiel | Nordics | 309 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 87 | Krogerus | Nordics | 121 | 29 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 89 | Plesner | Nordics | 285 | 61 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 91 | Castren & Snellman | Nordics | 162 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 1 |