From Trump and Brexit to debt and tech, we ask Global 100 leaders for their assessment of a turbulent 12 months
Trouble ahead
‘Confidence is pretty high, but there are some significant challenges ahead. The growth of tech is going to have a transformational impact, which is going to increase in velocity over the next year or two. At some point we are due for a recession. It is going to happen soon and Trump’s trade war could provoke it.’
Peter Martyr, global chief executive, Norton Rose Fulbright
Hedging well
‘It’s still a difficult market for legal services with more than a few political uncertainties, but people see the attraction of using a firm like ours. In the run up to the Brexit referendum and following it, we have seen clients postponing investment decisions they don’t have to take now because they want to see what the final deal looks like. But we have also seen non-sterling investors taking advantage of the pound’s weakness to acquire UK assets. There has been an uptick in regulatory work as a result of Brexit. We already have strong practices in continental Europe, so we are well hedged if some work leaves London as a result of Brexit.’
David Hudd, deputy chief executive, Hogan Lovells
The big convergence
‘Activity levels in the tech sector have had a strong boost. The pressure from the giants like Amazon, Google and Facebook is causing non-tech companies to review their survival strategies to retain their edge. This is leading to a convergence of tech companies and non-tech companies. Non-tech companies buying tech companies and vice versa – some big deals which are highlighting that convergence.’
Andy Ryde, head of corporate, Slaughter and May
Wide, wide world
‘The world is bigger than Brexit and Trump. In Asia, Brexit is not really the top of the conversation. In Europe a lot of the clients are carrying on as before. Brexit does have an impact on a number of areas and we might need to think about some of the more regulated areas, but from a global trade perspective it does not have a material impact. The UK had a very good year and so did the rest of the world.’
Gideon Moore (pictured), managing partner, Linklaters
Supplying the demand
‘We are fortunate that we saw a very balanced improvement across all of our regions – Americas, Europe and Asia – and almost all our practice areas. Activity levels in the US are healthy and that reflects a strong economy and the fact that in periods of rapid change clients increasingly turn to us. Clients are quite rightly continuing to demand more from their law firms in terms of partnering with them rather than just being service providers and that’s helped us because that’s the way we have always approached it.’
Paul Theiss, chair, Mayer Brown
Putting money to work
‘A lot of the things which were there last year are still there. But markets are getting used to the new normal. The depth of the debt market is very interesting: it is such a sophisticated market that people are still putting their money to work. The same for the private equity guys. This appears to be the case globally.
We have had little pockets of worries in the market – the Italian political crisis is an example. But once that power vacuum has gone away in Italy, people have just gone on and will just carry on. We have got such a liquid market that it does not get easily knocked.’
Charles Cochrane, finance partner, Clifford Chance
Business and politics disconnect
‘There has been a rise in regulatory issues and increased management of legal risk by our clients. The M&A markets have been very active but the economic backdrop is uncertain. The G7 Summit seemed to suggest that there is disconnect between the political world and the business world. In spite of the rise of nationalism, it’s a good period for business – the stock market is at an all-time high and the recent US tax changes have been helping to fuel business activity.’
Andrew Ballheimer, global managing partner, Allen & Overy
‘The world is bigger than Brexit and Trump.’
Gideon Moore, Linklaters
Tech shaking up deal lawyering
‘Technology is very much on our radar. We have a group here tracking what tech companies are working on and how these can be developed for our M&A practice. Tech has revolutionised the process of transactional lawyering. Consider the initial impact of email and word processors on deals and how aggressively the legal industry embraced that technology. If there is some new tech, in 30 years, lawyers will have embraced that too.’
Richard Hall, head of M&A – EMEA, Cravath, Swaine & Moore
A time to shine
‘The increasingly complex international economic and political environment affects the way our clients approach deals. There can be more unexpected challenges, more twists and turns in the way governments, regulators and counterparties are acting and interacting. We can be working on a European deal but, suddenly, a key issue can arise relating to approval from Chinese antitrust authorities. It can be difficult and frustrating for clients. Our firm thrives in these situations. When things get messy, that’s our chance to shine.’
Michael Gerstenzang, managing partner, Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton
Clients more transactional
‘The market has become more client-driven than ever before. Clients rightfully demand extraordinary and diverse talent, unmatched client service, compelling value propositions and successful outcomes on every matter. They also tend to be more transactional, so law firms need to deliver on each and every assignment. Failure is not an option in a world where reflexive client loyalty no longer exists.
We are extremely disciplined when it comes to client and matter selection. We will not go near commoditised work; the pricing pressure is far too intense. Our goal is to handle the most important and complex matters for the most important and successful corporations in the world. The competition for this work is extraordinarily intense and is becoming more intense every day.’
Brad Karp, chair, Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison